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Nov. 08, 2003
Do the Math
The hoopla in late May of 2003 and for at least a
month thereafter was uncanny. Not only had a rank
amateur plowed his way through 892 poker players to
snag the game's most prestigious title, but also, he
managed to get to the event without a backer and
without setting foot in a poker room! To top it off,
while devastating the largest field of entrants ever
with his unorthodox play, he was heading toward the
biggest purse in poker history.
Chris Moneymaker didn't earn just his name at the
World Series of Poker, he earned the right to state
emphatically that even the huge number of professional
and semiprofessional and extremely experienced players
looking to get that $2 million first-place prize can
be beaten.
Not since Hal Fowler moseyed to Vegas from Southern
California in 1979 to take aim at 56 players (mostly
professionals) and the $270,000 grand prize had an
amateur poker player ever garnered so much media
coverage.
The anomaly seems to raise a question of dichotomy.
(Poker is a game of skill with expertise acquired
through the long and arduous school of experience.
Right? That's why you see the same names appear at the
top of the winner's list all the time.)
But there is no contradiction.
First of all, tournament poker isn't really poker
anymore than tournament golf is golf. When you're
restricted by timed limits and increased betting
limits and chips, when you're forced to play at
monetary levels you'd never dream of playing in a
local casino, at home, or on the Internet, you're not
playing poker you're taking a shot. When you can't
take your winnings and cash out, you're not playing
poker you're taking a shot.
Second, the reason the same players seem to win is
just a case of selective memory. It seems (and seems
is the operative word here) that way because these
same people enter tournament after tournament after
tournament. Before the advent of online poker, a
regular (but not professional) poker player from
Kentucky might enter a big tournament in Mississippi.
But she'd be playing against all those same pros who
traveled to Mississippi specifically to play in the
event. Next week they might be in Connecticut but the
gal from Paducah isn't going there. And it's a pretty
good bet she won't be showing up for the Winter Poker
Championships in Dundee (Scotland) November 18th.
Third, we can return to the first example and look at
the smaller buy-in events held at poker tables around
the country. You don't see the Hellmuths and Brunsons
and Lederers winning the weekly events at Sam's Town
or Morongo.
In the past, when you did the math, you (the ordinary
Joe) didn't really stand much of a chance at big
money. Hal Fowler's win was considered a fluke. Even
today some people think Chris Moneymaker's win was a
fluke. I beg to differ. Today, if you do the math
you'll see that many more players have many more
options to get into big competitions, particularly the
World Series of Poker. If online poker rooms make a
habit of offering satellites at a cheap (or even free)
rate, more and more amateurs are going to show up in
the winner's circle. And if they begin to extend their
offerings to the World Poker Tour, the L.A. Poker
Classic, the World Poker Open and other major events,
then more events are going to have more winners who
aren't professional poker players.
That might not make the pros happy but it should and
it will. Eventually all these winners will become
regular competitors, either in live action or in
tournament play and that's good for poker and for the
bankrolls of the players who are one step ahead of the
newcomers. |